EXPERIMENTALBacktest 2015-01-01 to 2026-10-19Pass bar: expectancy ≥ +0.3R over ≥ 300 signals and above the baseline, over the whole period and out of sample. Entry at the trigger-day close.
521 triggersExpectancy +0.21R (baseline +0.12R)Win rate 36.9%Reached +2R first 35.7%Stopped out 13.2%Avg return per trade +1.98% (baseline +1.47%)
End-of-day NSE data, mainboard equity shares only: close ≥ ₹15, 30-day average volume ≥ 10,000 shares and 20-day average turnover ≥ ₹1 crore.
Trend template (Minervini): close above the 50-DMA, 50 above 150, 150 above 200-DMA; 200-DMA rising over 20 sessions; within 25% of the 52-week high and at least 30% above the 52-week low; RS Rating 70+ (weighted 3/6/9/12-month return, 3 months counting double, ranked 1–99).
Base: starts at the highest high of the last 130 sessions, at least 15 sessions ago. A swing high is the highest high of the 5 sessions either side. Contractions run from each lower swing high to the lowest low before the next; pullbacks under 2% are merged. A valid base has 2–5 contractions, each no more than 0.8× as deep as the one before, the first ≤ 35% and the last ≤ 10%.
Volume dry-up: average volume in the final contraction below 0.7× the 50-day average, and at least one of the last 10 sessions in the bottom 10% of the past 50 sessions' volume.
Trade plan: pivot = the final contraction's high (place the buy-stop just above it); stop = its low; risk % = (pivot − stop) / pivot, setups above 8% are rejected. Shares = your ₹ risk ÷ (pivot − stop).
States: Forming (more than 5% below the pivot), Ready (within 5%), Triggered (closed above the pivot on at least 1.5× the 50-day average volume). Failed: closed below the stop, closed above the pivot without that volume, lost the trend template, or closed back below the pivot within 3 sessions of triggering. Expired: no trigger within 30 sessions of turning Ready, or the pattern stopped qualifying for 20 sessions. While a setup is Forming or Ready, a newer, tighter contraction replaces the pivot and stop.
Setup score (0–100): 40% RS Rating, 25% tightness of the final contraction, 20% volume dry-up, 15% closeness to the pivot.
Backtest: every trigger since 2015, delisted stocks included. Entry at the trigger-day close (the trigger is only known once the day's volume is in); stop at the final-contraction low; exit at the stop, else the first close below the 20-DMA, else after 60 sessions; 0.2% round-trip cost. Results are in R (multiples of the initial risk). Baseline: every trend-template stock closing above its prior 20 closes, stop at the 10-session low. The rule parameters were tuned on 2015–2021 only; 2022 onwards is out of sample. Also shown: a resting buy-stop that fills on any session whose high clears the pivot, and (for reference only, not tradeable) triggers filled at the pivot or open.
These are screens, not signals: check the chart and the market regime before acting.